Publishers often do not have a business model in mind when they begin to move their content online. Part of their online migration process is to gather business model information and print-subscription pattern data. A key concern is that online institutional subscriptions will cannibalize individual subscription and duplicate-institutional subscription revenues. Some publishers are attempting to protect or even expand their personal subscription base through the online market by offering "personal services". Personal services include email alerts of new online content, pre-publication research articles, personal subject profile searches, etc.

A second concern is that online subscriptions -- individual or institutional -- will cannibalize print. Librarians are not replacing print with online; they are not yet canceling duplicate print subscriptions even when an online journal is available for unlimited access via the campus network. The barriers to librarians' acceptance of the online editions include: archiving, ownership and access (see User Survey results). These barriers will probably erode over time, but they can be taken advantage of to formulate a print-linked transitional pricing model that may suffice until 2000.

A third concern is that "pay per view" services -- which allow non-subscribers to obtain full text will erode the subscriber base, as "marginal" readers decide to pay only for what they need "just in time" rather than have a full subscription "just in case". Similar concerns surround the interaction of pay per view with reprint income.

Lastly, publishers are also concerned that allowing abstracts for free to all network users will eliminate a great deal of the value delivered to subscribers since an abstract is often quite sufficient to communicate the key results of a paper.

In the remainder of this paper we analyze both subscription models/pricing (how things are priced) and access models/controls (how access is controlled) for individual and institutional subscribers. We do not (yet) have sufficient information about pay per view to say much beyond speculation.

Presented below are six illustrative subscription models; there are infinite variations on these themes.

In cases where print and on-line contents are similar, librarians do not like "forced bundled" models in which online is an additional charge to a required print copy. For example, the University of California online collection development prohibits purchase under this model. Librarians perceive, "we're being forced to pay for the same content twice". Instead of making the cost of the online version explicit, some publishers are raising print prices by 5% to 15% and allowing online access "for free" (i.e., Journal of Neuroscience, Journal of Applied Physiology). Biotechnology Letters, published by Chapman Hall (6 issues in 1996), charges $413 for print and online and $344 for Print Only, a surcharge of about 17%.

Some publishers are delivering different content in their print and on-line versions. For example, Pediatrics Online is comprised of abstracts from the print journal plus 6 to 10 additional full-text electronic only articles. To access all the content from this title, access to both the paper and the electronic versions is required. (Pediatrics will raise institutional prices by approximately 5% to cover the electronic content costs.)

The reaction to this strategy depends upon the additional cost of the on-line version. Librarians generally "flag" journals with price increases equal to or more than 10% for possible cancellation.

The JBC Online business model offers a choice: print ($1,400), online ($1,100), or both ($2,500). This pricing model addresses the librarian's challenge, "don't force us to pay for the same content twice." (However, librarians object to the idea that they are paying twice at a high price if they choose both print & online, as many feel they must.) The ASBMB wants to accelerate the transition from print to online because of rising print and mail costs. They hope librarians who must choose between the print and the online will choose the online.

Most librarians who don't have the resources to pay for both a print and online edition are choosing the print. Canceling print and getting only the online edition seems too risky given concerns about archiving and access.

Subscriptions to IEE Online Journals are priced the same as the equivalent print versions. This covers unlimited online searching, display, and local printing by users at a single site. The price for a combined print and online subscription to one or more IEE Proceedings titles or Electronics Letters is 1.5 times the print price. The more titles an institution purchases, the money they save:

In general, librarians respond favorably to this model because they have choice of formats and there are economies of scale. However, librarians do not usually purchase on-line surcharges of over 15 percent.

American Chemical Society's (http://www.chemcenter.org) journal price varies with whether a print and/or an online subscription is purchased. For example:

Although some librarians may like the flexibility offered by this model, many will be overwhelmed by the complexity of their campus networks and decisions about who on the campus to sign up.

Academic Press will not sell individual, by-title subscriptions to libraries unless they are part of a consortium and buy a majority of the AP list. Their AP IDEAL package includes 175 journals (www.idealibrary.com). The full text is in Adobe Acrobat format. There are two exceptions to the AP consortium restriction: J. Molecular Biology Online and Genomics Online were available free to institutional print subscribers through 12/31/96. There is no pricing information available on the web, but the "librarian grapevine" puts the online surcharge for these titles at least 5% above the printed cost. This approach makes sense for Academic Press. They have a large suite of journals, most of them of secondary importance, most of them not likely to be purchased individually.

Librarian reaction to this model is mixed. Some librarians enjoy having the consortia make decisions and arrange access. Others have decided that these titles are not important enough to "buy twice," a reaction aimed less at the business model and more at the specific journals that are offered.

MathSciNet is a web database based on the data in Mathematical Reviews and Current Mathematical Publications. The subscription price for Mathematical Reviews (MR) and MathSciÆ products separates the cost of developing and maintaining the MR bibliographic database of editorial content (from which all products are derived) from the cost of the individual product deliveries. Subscribing sites contribute to the development and maintenance of the database by paying an annual Data Access Fee (DAF). Sites and individuals associated with those sites can then subscribe to MR products in a variety of formats by paying a Product Delivery Fee. So, for example, an institution might pay a $800 DAF for a title, then an additional $300 for each paper copy, and an additional $400 for an online site license, and an additional $100 for each CD-ROM. Librarian response to this model has been generally positive.

IP Based: All computers at a subscribing site may be authorized to access a journal. The publisher defines Îa site'. For example, the ASBMB defines a site as "an organizational unit within one city." Organizations located in more than one city are each a different site. (This definition is to ensure that large state university systems must purchase one license for each campus.)

Network Class Based: Only authorized networks at a subscribing site may access a journal. The American Chemical Society defines a site as: one geographical campus or building; corporate sites are limited to one company per building or campus. If a building or corporate campus has two separate companies, including one which is a subsidiary of the other, these are viewed as two sites. Fees are based on the number and kind of network configuration within a site. A print subscription authorizes (i.e., includes) access for one Class C license. (A Class C network might include a workgroup in a single building; a Class B license will usually include a small institution.) In the example above, an additional Class B license for a non-member is $1,955.

Virtually all librarians prefer site licenses in some form because it reduces administrative costs to a minimum. Potentially, there are significant economies of scale involved, which has prompted some publishers to calibrate license fees to reflect the size of the institution.

This option is well established for traditional database access, but is unclear as a journal subscription model. For example, the 1996 MathSci Disc Network Option adds the following surcharges to the MathSci Disc first copy price. Prices are for each disc networked. Per-user pricing is as follows:

This model holds both appeal and potential risks for publishers. A perceived advantage is publishers can provide institutional-wide access while limiting use. Fees can be set proportional to use. One risk is that this scheme allows librarians to be very price sensitive. Librarians may choose a subscription level based on what they are willing to pay, not necessarily on service levels. Another risk is the number of simultaneous access ports needed for even the most popular science journal is not likely to be very high. According to participants at our librarian focus group sessions, very large research institutions are unlikely to purchase more than 3 simultaneous "seats" for the most important, popular science titles.

Springer-Verlag is offering institutions "free" electronic editions in addition to their print subscriptions. Institutions sign an online license agreement for up to 25 concurrent users. Licenses to store journal data files and to disseminate them within the networks of corporations or cooperating libraries will be available upon request.

Commercial librarians favor this model because they have fewer users of any particular title. Academic librarians like it because it allows them to be "price sensitive".

In 1996, individual readers at institutions with print subscriptions to Nucleic Acids Research (NAR) could register free of charge for full access to the NAR Online. Every person needed their own username and password. They had to obtain their institutional subscriber number from the department (e.g. the library) where the printed copy of NAR is mailed. This model is discouraged by librarians because of the need to handle usernames and passwords.

This model authorizes particular situated machines within an institution (most often the library is suggested as the proper location). Discussions with librarian focus groups show this to be an unacceptable model.

Models for individual subscribers follow many of the institutional models. In addition, a recent trend is to segment and differentiate the individual/member from institutional "users" by offering "personal services". There are at least six market segments:

1. Very limited free content available to entire web, example: Science Magazine
2. Free full text to entire web, example: Journal of Clinical Investigation.
3. Somewhat limited content available via web with questionnaire registration, example Science Magazine
4. Full text and enhanced services (e.g., email notification), available as a premium paid service. Keep personal subscribers who also have online journal access via an institutional subscription, example: Journal of Biological Chemistry.
5. Pay per view is more a "non-subscription" model. Users enter their credit card numbers to pay for content. Pay per view options are available for article viewing, downloading and document delivery. Sales can be per article, or a number of articles purchased at discount off the single-article price.
6. Full text available to a particular category of people:

1. Members/individuals who subscribe to print receive full text online for free
2. Members get full text online for free as part of their membership dues
3. Individuals/members who buy print get online full text for small surcharge
4. Members have option of buying online only

For example, American Chemical Society's journal price varies with whether a print and/or online subscription is purchased, and if the buyer is an ACS member. The online edition is cheaper when purchased with a print subscription. For example:

Access using an IP address requires only that the user register the address of a single machine. No other identification is required. In systems require a user name and password, access is granted when payment is confirmed. Users are then assigned an authorization number (which may be their membership or subscriber number). This number allows them to enter the system and choose a username and password. Individuals are able to change and update this information online. If they forget their password, they may enter in either their username or authorization number and the system will assign them a new password. They then can change the machine-assigned password to one they choose.

Although the sample of publishers reviewed for this report is quite small÷next year there will be many more÷the evidence suggests two propositions:

(1) Journal publishers are using the emergence of electronic formats as a device for collecting market information while at the same time they are enhancing revenues. When evaluated in terms of impact per page, many of the high-impact journals have been under-priced relative to their less well known competitors. However, they have been constrained in their ability to increase prices by their reluctance to alienate the community of which they are a part. The on-line version, especially when it contains enhancements that go beyond the print version, has enabled them to leverage the substantial investments they have in their publishing activities.

The unknown in the equation is what effect the increase in revenues is having on the bottom line. Data on costs are closely guarded proprietary information and hence it is impossible to say whether, as some have suggested, the emergence of on-line versions is a public service and that increased revenues only cover development costs or, as others suspect, the increase in gross revenues are also yielding an increase in net revenues.

(2) The overall increase in serial prices resulting from the additional charges for on-line displays will, in the face of stagnant library budgets, put substantial pressures on second-tier journals that are often part of the stable of large commercial publishers. So long as archiving problems remain unresolved and the resistance of users to abandoning print entirely continues, few institutions will give up their print titles. Many, however, will decide to make modest investments in the on-line versions of major journals. To make room for these expenditures, they will reduce the number of second-tier print titles.