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Inherited Wealth and Demographic Aging [electronic resource]
Onder, HarunWashington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2016.The role of inherited wealth in modern economies has increasingly come under scrutiny. This study presents one of the first attempts to shed light on how demographic aging could shape this role. It shows that, in the absence of retirement annuities, or for a given level of annuitization, both increasing longevity and decreasing fertility should reduce the inherited share of total wealth in a given economy. Thus, aging is not likely to explain a recent surge in this share in some advanced economies. Shrinking retirement annuities, however, could offset and potentially reverse these effects. The paper also shows that aging could increase the size of individual bequests vis-a-vis real wages. However, these bequests will be more unequally distributed if aging is driven by a drop in fertility. In comparison, the effect of increasing longevity on their distribution in non-monotonic.
Online World Bank eLibrary
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Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria [electronic resource]
Onder, HarunWashington, D.C. : The World Bank, 2014.Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.
Online World Bank eLibrary
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Azerbaijan [electronic resource] : inclusive growth in a resource-rich economy
Onder, HarunWashington, D.C. : World Bank, c2013.Azerbaijan experienced a 'golden age' in the last decade, during which the average growth rate reached record high levels and poverty decreased significantly. On average, the economy grew by 15.3 percent per year in real terms during this period. As a result, poverty declined dramatically from 49.6 percent in 2001 to 15.8 percent in 2008. This study takes an inclusive growth approach to investigating the ways in which the country's high growth was translated into significant poverty reduction. The report first investigates the sources of growth in Azerbaijan with an emphasis on sectoral composition and structural transformation, and then explores how growth helped to reduce poverty. Next, it analyses the sustainability and inclusiveness of the recent growth, and focuses on the structural obstacles that constrain further inclusive growth in Azerbaijan. Finally, it recommends a set of policies to overcome these obstacles. The main findings of this study call for a careful strategy in promoting further inclusive growth in Azerbaijan. Poverty is found to be reduced mainly by oil-financed social transfers and real wage growth, which in turn were made possible by Azerbaijan's sharply increasing oil revenues. However, as the share of hydrocarbon sector grew in the economy, structural transformation towards diversification and balanced growth stalled. Moreover, the sectoral composition of recent growth has not been conducive to employment creation. To further strengthen inclusiveness, therefore, there is a need for diversification and improvement in labour market outcomes. This study also identifies areas where policy adjustments can unleash further inclusive growth in the non-oil economy. These include promotion of a greater economic integration into world markets, introduction of a robust and long-term oriented fiscal rule that limits and smoothes the domestic absorption of oil revenues, removing the skill mismatches and distortionary tax incentives that may create adverse incentives in the labour market, and improving institutional aspects of the business environment. A broad strategy for promoting inclusive growth involves implementing these policies in a systematic fashion.
Online World Bank eLibrary
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